The Education Exchange: NAEP Scores Higher Among 9-Year-Olds Not Yet in School During Covid

Youngest Learners Show Surprising Gains as National Assessment Reveals Stark Age Divide

A recent wave of national education data has delivered a confounding mix of good news and persistent challenges, painting a complex picture of student progress. While 9-year-olds are demonstrating unexpected improvements in reading and math, their older counterparts, 13-year-olds, remain largely stagnant, still trailing behind pre-pandemic achievement levels. This divergence highlights a critical moment for understanding the long-term impact of educational disruptions and the evolving needs of students.

The Unexpected Bounce-Back: A Glimmer of Hope for Early Learners

The latest National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) Long-Term Trends data, often referred to as the nation's report card, has revealed a significant uptick in performance for 9-year-olds. This cohort, tested in 2025, showed gains of four points in both mathematics and reading compared to their last assessment. This positive trend is particularly striking given the recent history of declining scores in education.

For many of these younger students, the most intense period of pandemic-related school closures in 2020 occurred when they were in kindergarten or even pre-kindergarten. This timing, experts suggest, may have insulated them from the most severe academic disruptions experienced by older students. The data indicates that their reading scores have now returned to pre-pandemic levels, a welcome development after a period of decline.

However, even within this age group, the recovery isn't uniform. While reading scores have rebounded, math performance for 9-year-olds, though improved since 2022, still lags behind where it was in 2020 and significantly behind 2012 benchmarks. This suggests that while some foundational skills are regaining ground, others require more sustained attention.

The Stagnant Middle: A Generation Left Behind?

In stark contrast to the progress of younger learners, 13-year-olds are showing little to no improvement. Their scores on the NAEP assessment have remained flat since their last testing in 2023. More concerningly, these students are still performing considerably below their 2019 pre-pandemic levels and even further behind their 2012 performance.

This age group would have been in critical elementary grades, such as fourth grade, when widespread school closures and shifts to remote learning took hold in 2020. The sustained lack of academic growth among these students raises serious questions about the lasting impact of that disruption and the effectiveness of recovery efforts.

The data suggests that for this cohort, the challenges extend beyond the immediate pandemic period. Experts point out that achievement trends were already showing concerning signs in the years leading up to 2020. This indicates that the pandemic may have exacerbated pre-existing educational weaknesses rather than solely creating new ones.

Unpacking the "Covid Story": Beyond the Pandemic's Shadow

The striking difference between the 9-year-olds and 13-year-olds immediately prompts a "Covid story" narrative. It's tempting to conclude that those who experienced less direct disruption during the critical early years of schooling fared better. This perspective holds some truth, as a significant portion of the 9-year-old cohort was not yet in formal schooling during the peak of the pandemic's impact.

However, relying solely on the pandemic as an explanation risks overlooking a longer-term trend. NAEP data shows that student performance, particularly for older students, had begun to plateau or decline even before 2020. The peak performance for many age groups on these long-term trend assessments occurred in the early to mid-2010s.

Therefore, understanding current student achievement requires looking beyond the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. It necessitates a deeper examination of the educational landscape over the past decade, identifying the systemic factors that may have contributed to the stagnation observed in older students.

Subgroup Insights: Progress and Persistent Gaps

While the overall national trends are significant, a closer look at subgroup performance offers more nuanced insights. The NAEP Long-Term Trends assessment, while primarily designed for national data, does allow for some examination of demographic groups, though with limitations due to sample size.

The Reversal of a Troubling Trend: Gains for Lower Achievers

One of the most encouraging findings for the 9-year-old cohort is that their recent gains were disproportionately driven by lower-achieving students. This marks a significant reversal of a troubling trend observed in recent years, where declines in achievement were most pronounced among students at the lower end of the academic spectrum.

This suggests that interventions and educational strategies implemented may be starting to have a positive impact on those who have historically struggled the most. However, the fact that this group was also most affected by pre-pandemic declines means that much work remains to ensure equitable educational outcomes.

Gender Differences: Girls Face New Challenges

Another notable trend emerging from the data is the differential impact on girls. While attention has often focused on the academic struggles of boys in recent years, the NAEP data indicates that girls have experienced larger declines in performance and have been slower to recover their scores. This is a complex issue with no single easy explanation.

Some researchers speculate that social and emotional dislocations, exacerbated by both the pandemic's isolation and the pervasive influence of social media, may be having a more profound impact on girls. This is an area that warrants further investigation and targeted support strategies.

Regional and Ethnic Variations: A National Picture, Not a State-by-State Story

The NAEP Long-Term Trends assessment, due to its design for national-level data, offers limited ability to draw precise conclusions about regional or state-level performance. While broad regional patterns were not significantly different in this assessment, the data is not robust enough to confirm or deny specific "miracles" or disparities.

Similarly, when examining racial and ethnic groups, the data shows numerically similar patterns of improvement for 9-year-olds across different groups since 2022. However, these changes were not statistically significant for individual groups. This means that while the nation as a whole saw progress, the assessment cannot definitively confirm significant gains for specific racial or ethnic subgroups independently.

The Shifting Landscape: Enrollment Declines and Alternative Education Models

Concurrent with the NAEP results, new data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reveals a significant drop in public school enrollment. A decline of 2.8%, representing 1.4 million students, compared to fall 2019, provides official confirmation of a trend that has been developing for some time.

This enrollment shift is attributed to a combination of factors. A slowing birth rate, leading to fewer young children entering the school system, is a primary demographic driver. This trend, reflecting declining fertility rates from approximately five years prior, is now directly impacting kindergarten and early elementary enrollments.

Beyond demographic changes, there's also a notable migration away from traditional public schools towards alternative educational models. This includes a rise in homeschooling and the emergence of smaller, more localized "micro-schools." These shifts have implications for how educational progress is measured, as national assessments like NAEP typically do not include homeschooled students.

Two NAEPs, One Goal: Understanding the Assessment's Dual Nature

The discussion around NAEP often involves two distinct surveys: the "main NAEP" and the "long-term trend" assessment. Understanding their differences is crucial for interpreting the data accurately.

The Main NAEP: Adapting to the Modern Classroom

The main NAEP is administered every two years to students in grades 4, 8, and 12. Its design philosophy emphasizes relevance and comparability to current educational practices. This means the assessment is regularly updated to reflect contemporary curriculum and teaching methods.

A key distinction is that the main NAEP is now delivered digitally, with students taking the assessment on electronic devices. This aligns with the increasing digitalization of education and provides a more accurate reflection of how students interact with information in their daily learning environments.

The Long-Term Trend NAEP: A Constant Yardstick

In contrast, the NAEP Long-Term Trends assessment, which tested 9- and 13-year-olds in this recent release, prioritizes consistency above all else. Launched in the 1970s, its core mission is to provide an unbroken measure of achievement over decades by keeping the assessment items and testing conditions as unchanged as possible.

This means the long-term trend is still a paper-based assessment, and the questions themselves are largely identical to those used in the 1970s, with only minor adjustments for factual inaccuracies. This steadfast approach allows for direct comparisons across generations, offering a unique historical perspective on educational progress.

The age-based testing (9, 13, and sometimes 17) of the long-term trend, compared to the grade-based testing of the main NAEP, further differentiates the two. While the main NAEP provides state-level data, the long-term trend focuses solely on national aggregates.

The Future of Assessment: Navigating Funding and Philosophy

The existence of two distinct NAEP programs raises questions about their future, especially in an era of increasing pressure for budget cuts within the Department of Education. While both are congressionally mandated, the ongoing debate about their necessity and efficiency continues.

The philosophy behind the long-term trend is to maintain a stable benchmark, allowing for the tracking of progress over extended periods. However, critics argue that an assessment that doesn't evolve with the times may not accurately capture the skills and knowledge students need today. Conversely, the main NAEP's adaptability ensures relevance but may make long-term historical comparisons more complex.

Ultimately, the decision of whether to maintain, modify, or consolidate these assessment programs rests with Congress. The National Assessment Governing Board, which oversees NAEP, operates within these mandates, recognizing the vital role these assessments play in informing education policy and practice.

The recent NAEP results, particularly the contrasting performance of 9- and 13-year-olds, underscore the need for continued vigilance and strategic action. While the gains for younger students offer a reason for optimism, the persistent stagnation among older learners demands a deeper dive into the root causes and the development of effective, scalable solutions. The education system must continue to adapt, innovate, and support all students in their journey toward academic success.