OPINION: There’s a ‘cascade effect’ from the Supreme Court’s affirmative action ban, and it’s hurting Black and Latino students

Supreme Court Ruling Triggers Enrollment 'Cascade' Harming Black and Latino Students

The seismic shift in college admissions following the Supreme Court's 2023 decision has unleashed a complex "cascade effect," demonstrably impacting enrollment figures for Black and Latino students at institutions nationwide. While the most visible changes are occurring at elite universities, the repercussions are rippling through the entire higher education landscape, raising serious concerns about equity and opportunity.

The Unfolding Enrollment Ripple

The immediate aftermath of the ruling, which restricted race-conscious admissions policies, was largely anticipated. Elite institutions, long seen as gateways to significant professional and economic advantages, are reporting a noticeable decline in Black and Latino student enrollment. This initial wave, however, is only the beginning of a more intricate pattern.

Researchers are now describing this phenomenon as a "cascade." The logic is straightforward: when highly selective institutions reduce the enrollment of underrepresented minority students, those students often seek admission to state flagship universities or other less selective colleges. This displacement then pushes other Black and Latino students, who might have attended these state flagships, further down the educational ladder.

The ultimate destinations for many in this secondary wave are regional, community, or for-profit colleges. These institutions, while valuable in their own right, often possess fewer resources to support student success. This disparity can translate into lower graduation rates and a greater likelihood of accumulating substantial student debt without a degree, creating a challenging post-graduation reality.

The First Wave: Visible Shifts

The initial phase of this cascade is already making its presence felt. Data indicates that four out of every five state flagship universities have seen an increase in underrepresented minority student enrollment. Some commentators have interpreted this trend as evidence that the Supreme Court's decision has not been a "disaster" for Black and Latino students, suggesting that a quality education remains accessible at these public institutions.

However, this perspective often overlooks the more insidious, secondary wave of the cascade effect. This subtler, yet equally damaging, impact is unfolding within the public university system itself, making it harder to discern the full extent of the challenges faced by Black and Latino students.

The Dual Impact on Public Universities

Many public universities are grappling with both waves of the cascade simultaneously. This dual impact creates a confusing enrollment picture, where gains in minority student numbers can mask underlying losses. These institutions are absorbing students who were redirected from elite schools, but they are also losing other Black and Latino students who would have been admitted under previous race-conscious policies.

In these complex scenarios, the percentage of minority students may appear relatively stable. This stability, however, is often a result of addition being precisely balanced by subtraction, creating an illusion of continuity rather than genuine progress.

While a significant majority of state flagships have seen an overall increase in underrepresented racial and ethnic minority students, the gains in Black enrollment specifically are often not dramatic. For instance, over half of these institutions have reported increases of fewer than 10 Black students, and some have even experienced losses. The University of Maryland, College Park, serves as a stark example, reporting a decrease of 52 Black students when comparing average enrollment from 2022-2023 with data from 2024.

The Hidden Wave: Pre-Existing Trends

In a different segment of public institutions, the secondary wave of the cascade effect is less visible because it predates the 2023 Supreme Court ruling. These state flagships had already ceased using race-conscious admissions policies due to state-level bans, litigation, or proactive institutional choices.

Consequently, these universities experienced a decline in minority student enrollment well before the nationwide impact of the Supreme Court's decision. Some students in these situations may have even opted out of higher education altogether.

Following the 2023 ruling, these institutions are now experiencing the initial wave of the cascade effect. Some minority students, previously denied entry to elite schools, are now being rerouted towards these state flagships. For certain universities that had already abandoned race-conscious admissions, the current gains in Black and Latino enrollment are amplified.

This is because these schools had already lost minority students when they altered their admissions practices. Now, they are primarily admitting students displaced from the most selective institutions, leading to significant increases that appear positive on the surface but are rooted in prior losses.

The Illusion of "Winning"

The enrollment increases observed at some public institutions, particularly those that previously eliminated race-conscious admissions, can be misleading. These larger gains are a direct consequence of prior reductions in Black and Latino student populations.

It is crucial to challenge the narrative that state universities are "winning" as a result of the curtailment of race-conscious admissions. Even the appearance of greater diversity at these public institutions can be somewhat illusory, masking the underlying systemic shifts.

Beyond Prestige: The Real Cost of Displacement

While the educational quality at institutions like the University of Maryland might be comparable to that of a more prestigious university like Johns Hopkins, the loss of prestige and access to influential alumni networks is a significant consequence. These intangible benefits play a crucial role in shaping future career trajectories and opportunities.

However, the most profound harm of the cascade effect lies in the destinations of students who cannot access state flagships or other selective institutions. For-profit institutions, in particular, are a cause for concern.

The For-Profit Pitfall

These for-profit colleges are often characterized by alarmingly low graduation rates. Students who enroll in these programs frequently emerge with significant debt but without a degree, a situation that can have long-lasting negative financial and professional consequences. Troublingly, data from 2024 indicates a substantial increase in Black student enrollment at for-profit institutions nationwide, with an additional 15,000 students.

Similar patterns have been observed in states that implemented bans on affirmative action prior to the Supreme Court's 2023 ruling, highlighting a consistent trend of underrepresented students being channeled into less supportive educational environments.

The Value of Selective Institutions

Regional and community colleges provide essential student support services, but transfer rates to four-year institutions can be low. Moreover, selective institutions typically offer a richer array of resources and opportunities that can significantly enhance a student's academic journey and future prospects.

Research by economist Zachary Bleemer offers compelling evidence. He compared students who narrowly missed admission to a selective University of California institution with peers of similar socioeconomic and academic backgrounds who attended less selective colleges. The findings were clear: students admitted to the more selective UC institutions demonstrated stronger academic performance, higher graduation rates, and achieved greater postgraduate incomes.

This comparative analysis underscores a critical point: attending a more selective institution demonstrably makes a difference in a student's long-term success. The Supreme Court's ruling, therefore, represents a significant setback for higher education equity across the board.

A Call to Action for Elite Institutions

The current enrollment trends suggest that a greater number of Black and Latino students will find themselves in educational settings where they are more likely to encounter adverse outcomes. This is a critical issue that demands immediate attention and proactive solutions.

The news should serve as a powerful wake-up call for highly selective institutions. These universities hold considerable influence over the initial stages of the enrollment cascade. They must redouble their efforts to broaden access and enhance opportunities for Black and Latino applicants.

Failing to do so risks perpetuating and exacerbating existing inequalities, ultimately harming not only individual students but the entire higher education ecosystem and society at large.