Who Wins, Who Loses—Revisited

Universal School Choice: A Bold Vision Realized, With Clear Winners and Evolving Losers

Thirty years ago, the concept of universal school choice was a radical idea, a distant dream for educational pioneers Milton and Rose Friedman. Today, with universal choice a reality in several states, we can finally assess the accuracy of their predictions about who would thrive and who would falter in a transformed educational landscape.

The Genesis of a Movement: From Frustration to Foundation

Frustrated by the slow pace of educational reform and the resistance to even minor shifts towards parental choice, the Friedmans established a foundation bearing their name. Their goal was simple yet ambitious: to educate the public about the profound benefits of allowing families to select the educational environment best suited for their children.

At the time, the landscape of educational choice was nascent. Small-scale tuition subsidies in New England, a modest voucher program in Milwaukee, and experimental initiatives in places like Alum Rock, California, offered glimpses of what could be. However, these were far from the comprehensive, universal systems the Friedmans envisioned.

Their foresight was captured in a 1998 article, "Who Wins, Who Loses—A Look at the Future." They imagined a scenario where a comprehensive voucher program, usable at any recognized public or private school, would reshape education. Their hypothesis identified teachers, employers, voucher recipients, and students remaining in public schools as potential winners, while bureaucrats, teachers' unions, and some politicians were pegged as potential losers.

The Winners Emerge: A Landscape of Opportunity

Now, with universal or near-universal choice programs firmly established in states like Florida, Arizona, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia for at least five years, the impact is becoming clear. The evidence suggests a significant number of winners across the educational ecosystem.

Students Flourish in New Environments

Students who actively participate in universal choice and charter school programs are consistently demonstrating positive outcomes. The very nature of choice means families are making deliberate decisions, often driven by a desire to escape negative environments or seek more individualized attention. Research consistently shows these students thriving in their new educational settings.

A notable study on Ohio's voucher program, for instance, revealed long-term benefits in college enrollment and graduation rates. This aligns with a broader body of research indicating that students in choice programs exhibit higher levels of civic engagement, greater tolerance, reduced criminal activity, and improved college matriculation and persistence.

Public Schools Rise to the Challenge

Contrary to some concerns, students who remain in traditional public schools are also benefiting from the advent of universal choice. These schools are seeing improvements in student performance, with children demonstrating better outcomes in math and reading, and experiencing less absenteeism. College graduation and matriculation rates are also on the rise for these students.

Data from Florida, following the implementation of universal choice, shows children remaining in public schools performing better on standardized assessments and exhibiting lower absenteeism. Similar findings in Ohio indicate that broad educational choice has spurred positive results for students who stay within the public system. The competitive dynamic introduced by choice appears to be a catalyst for improvement across the board.

Parents and Families Gain Unprecedented Agency

For years, parents have expressed a desire for greater flexibility in their children's education. National surveys consistently reveal that a significant portion of parents would prefer private, charter, or homeschooling options if cost were not a barrier, yet the majority remain enrolled in traditional public schools due to geographic or financial constraints.

In states with robust choice programs, this disparity is narrowing. Parents are increasingly able to access educational options that align with their values and their children's needs, moving beyond the limitations of zip code-assigned schools. This newfound agency is leading to soaring levels of parent satisfaction, particularly among lower-income families and families of color.

Private Schools Experience Renewed Growth

While the national trend for private schools has been stagnant or declining, states with universal choice programs are witnessing a notable resurgence. Arizona, Florida, and Ohio, in particular, have seen significant increases in the number of private schools operating within their borders.

The expansion of education savings accounts (ESAs) has been a key driver, enabling more private schools and educational vendors to enter the market. This growth indicates a vibrant and responsive private sector, meeting the diverse demands of families seeking alternatives to traditional public education.

Education Entrepreneurs Drive Innovation

The rise of universal ESAs has ignited a surge in educational entrepreneurship. New organizations are emerging, dedicated to creating innovative schooling models that cater to a wider range of student needs and learning styles. This includes a significant growth in microschools and hybrid learning environments.

The way families utilize ESA funds has also evolved dramatically. While tuition was once the primary expense, a substantial majority of families now use their ESAs for a diverse array of educational services and resources, demonstrating a highly personalized approach to education. This entrepreneurial spirit is fundamentally reshaping the educational landscape.

Politicians Embrace a Winning Issue

Support for educational choice among legislators, particularly Republicans, has grown substantially. Experience has shown that advocating for school choice is not a political liability; rather, it has become a powerful and popular platform for many elected officials.

Governors and legislative leaders who have championed choice initiatives have seen positive electoral results. Anecdotal evidence suggests that what was once a contentious issue is now often an easy vote within legislative caucuses, reflecting a broader acceptance and understanding of its benefits.

The Evolving Landscape of Losers

While the narrative of winners is compelling, the transition to universal choice has also presented challenges and identified those who may be losing ground, at least in the short term.

Taxpayers Face Short-Term Adjustments

In the immediate aftermath of implementing choice programs, traditional public schools have sometimes struggled to adapt to declining enrollment. This, coupled with persistent birth rate declines, has led to budget strains in some districts, particularly when staffing levels do not adjust proportionally.

Critics point to the need for greater financial discipline within public school systems to align spending with enrollment realities. While choice can be a catalyst for this adjustment, the responsibility ultimately lies with districts to manage resources effectively in a changing environment.

Bureaucrats Resist Change

Leaders within traditional public school systems who resist the shift towards a more personalized, parent-driven educational model are finding themselves on the losing side. As parents gain more options and influence, districts that cling to a one-size-fits-all approach risk alienating families.

A refusal to acknowledge and adapt to the evolving demands of parents seeking responsive and effective educational solutions is not a sustainable strategy. The demand for schools that address issues like bullying, anxiety, and instructional quality is growing, and institutions that fail to meet these needs will likely fall behind.

Teachers Unions Face Declining Relevance

The response of teachers unions to the pandemic and the rise of universal choice has been a significant factor in declining membership. The stance of union leadership, often opposing school choice and favoring prolonged school closures, has diverted from the needs and desires of many parents.

This disconnect is unfortunate, especially at a time when teacher morale is reportedly low. Ironically, educational savings accounts, which are supported by a majority of teachers, could offer educators greater autonomy and new avenues for professional growth, potentially empowering them in a competitive educational market.

Outdated Reformers Struggle to Adapt

A segment of educational reformers remains entrenched in older, top-down models of change. These individuals often favor technocratic approaches and may view the messiness of free-market educational choice with skepticism, preferring a more controlled and predictable system.

However, the educational landscape has shifted towards a bottom-up enterprise driven by parental demand and innovation. Reformers who fail to recognize this fundamental change risk becoming irrelevant, continuing conversations that have little impact on policy or practice.

The Future Winners: A Brighter Horizon

Looking ahead, the potential for widespread benefits from universal educational choice appears even more promising.

Taxpayers Stand to Benefit Long-Term

As choice programs mature, they are expected to foster greater financial discipline within the education sector. ESAs, in particular, incentivize families to maximize the value of their educational dollars, leading to more efficient resource allocation.

This can translate into better budget control for lawmakers and a redirection of funds towards classrooms rather than administrative overhead. Research suggests that existing choice programs are already yielding taxpayer savings, a trend likely to accelerate as these systems evolve.

Society As A Whole Will Thrive

The vision of Milton and Rose Friedman extends to the broader societal impact of universal choice. As competition drives improvements, the gap between the privileged and the disadvantaged is expected to narrow, with greater access to educational opportunities for all children.

Early indicators point towards reductions in crime and increased college attendance rates. A more educated populace can lead to a more robust economy, increased tax revenue, and a more engaged and tolerant citizenry. The full societal benefits of this educational transformation are still unfolding.

Teachers Can Find New Empowerment

Despite current challenges, teachers are poised to be future winners. The educational freedom that parents are embracing can also extend to educators, who may find new opportunities to innovate by establishing their own microschools or pursuing roles outside the traditional system.

The evolving educational landscape presents an opportunity for teachers to regain agency and find greater fulfillment in their profession. The shifts occurring due to educational choice may ultimately lead to a more empowered and respected teaching force.

Democratic Politicians Can Seize Opportunity

While school choice has historically faced resistance within the Democratic party, there are emerging signs of change. Some Democratic politicians are recognizing the significant benefits choice offers to their constituents, particularly in urban areas where educational disparities are often most pronounced.

By embracing educational choice, Democrats can align with the will of their voters and champion policies that foster economic development and opportunity. Groups dedicated to promoting educational options are actively working to build bridges and demonstrate the net positive impact of choice for all communities.

Five years into the era of universal school choice, the evidence overwhelmingly points to a landscape with far more winners than losers. The bold vision of Milton and Rose Friedman is not only being realized but is also continuing to evolve, promising an even brighter future for education and society as a whole.